Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
