A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
